The heads of the Ulyanovsk region, Tuva and North Ossetia-Alania have the highest probability of early resignation, it follows from the political stability rating of the governors of the Minchenko Consulting company (.pdf). According to experts, in the upcoming elections, the factor of long tenure may become decisive for the heads of Russian regions.
According to the authors of the report, all three governors are in the “red zone” of political stability. Thus, the head of Tuva, Sholban Kara-ool, who has been in office for 14 years, has 10 points. The head of the Ulyanovsk region Sergey Morozov – 7 points, he has been leading the region for 16 years. The head of North Ossetia Vyacheslav Bitarov, who headed the region in 2016, has 6 points. According to experts, despite the fact that Mr. Bitarov holds the post only for the first term, his resignation became possible after large-scale “antiquated” protests in the North Caucasus, as well as a high-profile road accident involving his brother.
Among the chapters with expiring terms of office, the most stable are Ramzan Kadyrov (Chechnya, 20 points) and Alexey Dyumin (Tula Oblast, 18 points). According to the authors of the rating, this is due to their maximum support from federal politicians.
More details about the rating – in the material of “Kommersant” “There is no armchair for old men”.